AUGUST 12 NEVER COMES
On the morning of August 12, 1994, Major League Baseball should have been entering the most important seven weeks of its season. The Montreal Expos owned baseball’s best record at 74-40, the New York Yankees led the American League at 70-43, and several of the sport’s biggest stars were producing seasons that might have been remembered for decades. Instead, the players went on strike, and on September 14 acting commissioner Bud Selig canceled the remainder of the regular season and the entire postseason. There would be no World Series for the first time since 1904. The hinge is straightforward. The labor dispute still exists because the economic arguments between players and owners were real and substantial, but the two sides agree to continue playing while negotiations proceed. There is no August walkout, no canceled postseason, no spring of replacement-player preparations, and no delayed 1995 opening. Baseball gets to finish what had become one of its most unusual seasons. That sounds like a small change until you look at everything that was in progress. Tony Gwynn was hitting .394 and had been even better after the All-Star break. Matt Williams had already hit 43 home runs and was on a pace that put Roger Maris’ record of 61 within reach. Frank Thomas was producing one of the greatest offensive seasons in White Sox history, Ken Griffey Jr. already had 40 homers, and Jeff Bagwell had put together an extraordinary MVP season before a broken hand ended his year on August 10. Then there was Montreal. The Expos were not a novelty team having a lucky summer. They were young, deep, fast, well managed by Felipe Alou, and supported by one of baseball’s strongest pitching staffs. If Major League Baseball finishes the 1994 season, the first question is not whether Montreal reaches the postseason. The real question is whether anybody stops them.
THE TEAM BASEBALL NEVER GOT TO SEE IN OCTOBER
Montreal’s 74-40 record gave it a six-game lead over Atlanta in the National League East and the best winning percentage in baseball. The Expos had scored 585 runs and allowed only 454, a plus-131 differential, and even a Pythagorean estimate that discounted some of their actual record still evaluated them as a 70-44-quality club. Baseball-Reference’s modern simulation of the unfinished season gives Montreal a projected final record of about 102-60 and a 97.5 percent chance of winning the division. The lineup was built around a remarkably productive outfield. Moisés Alou was hitting .339 with 22 home runs and a .989 OPS, Larry Walker was at .322 with 19 homers and a .981 OPS, and Marquis Grissom combined solid offense with speed and elite center-field defense. Grissom already had 36 stolen bases, while 21-year-old Cliff Floyd was beginning to establish himself as another important piece. The pitching was just as important. Ken Hill was 16-5 with a 3.32 ERA and would finish second in the National League Cy Young voting; Jeff Fassero had a 2.99 ERA, Butch Henry was at 2.43, and a 22-year-old Pedro Martínez was 11-5 with a 3.42 ERA and 142 strikeouts in 144⅔ innings. John Wetteland had 25 saves and a 2.83 ERA, with Mel Rojas providing another strong late-inning option. The evidence makes Montreal the strongest starting point rather than merely the sentimental choice. Baseball-Reference’s 25,000 rest-of-season and postseason simulations give the Expos the highest World Series probability in the majors at 19.1 percent. The Yankees are next at 15.7 percent, followed by the White Sox at 14.0 and Cleveland at 12.4. Nineteen percent does not mean Montreal was destined to win. Baseball does not offer those guarantees, particularly in short postseason series. It does mean that if we are going to choose one champion from the evidence available on August 11, the strongest case begins in Quebec. Montreal gets the chance to prove it in October.
THE FIRST WILD-CARD RACE ACTUALLY HAPPENSPREMIUM
Continue this timeline
This section is available to Sports Rewritten members. Checking your membership access…
View MembershipTONY GWYNN MAKES SEPTEMBER PERSONALPREMIUM
Member-only section.
THE HOME-RUN CHASE BEFORE THE HOME-RUN CHASEPREMIUM
Member-only section.
MONTREAL GETS LOS ANGELESPREMIUM
Member-only section.
NEW YORK FINALLY GETS DON MATTINGLY TO OCTOBERPREMIUM
Member-only section.
FRANK THOMAS GETS HIS OCTOBERPREMIUM
Member-only section.
ATLANTA MAKES MONTREAL EARN ITPREMIUM
Member-only section.
THE 1994 WORLD SERIES: MONTREAL VS. NEW YORKPREMIUM
Member-only section.
THE EXPOS WIN THE WORLD SERIESPREMIUM
Member-only section.
A CHAMPIONSHIP CHANGES THE EXPOS, BUT IT DOES NOT MAKE THEM RICHPREMIUM
Member-only section.
MONTREAL DOESN'T BECOME WASHINGTONPREMIUM
Member-only section.
THE YANKEES DYNASTY CHANGES TOOPREMIUM
Member-only section.
BASEBALL DOESN'T NEED TO BE "SAVED"PREMIUM
Member-only section.
AND AL BUNDY LOSES HIS BASEBALL LEAGUEPREMIUM
Member-only section.
HISTORICAL ANCHORS AND SIMULATION NOTESPREMIUM
Member-only section.
THE DISCUSSION
Comments
No approved comments yet. Start the conversation.